Comments on: Chinese Mobile Business Model Is Suicide

By: Kamruzzaman

Kamruzzaman — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:12:59 +0000

Hi,
I am a owener of Vertex (pvt)of Bangladesh. I would like to import
some androidde mobile set frome China.Can you help me about this? or
What would be good proccess? just tell me.

By: Abdur Rouf

Abdur Rouf — Thu, 10 Nov 2011 07:38:02 +0000

I want to be chinese mobile business partner.Please any one help me for this business…:)

By: Paul Ruppert at Mobile Point View

Paul Ruppert at Mobile Point View — Thu, 09 Aug 2007 13:55:09 +0000

Perry,
Core premise that somehow application driven messaging equates with the Peer to Peer, or person to person if the core flaw here. SMS SMEs understand that the notion of "premium messaging" is investment community, e.g.,Vulture Capitalists, hype. Layer on the laws of big numbers as is the rule in the China market, and you have hype driving irrational exuberence. The split between P2P and A2p is about 90/10 in most operators around the world. Yes, outlyers such as the Philippines exists, but even Orange expects that in 5 years the split will be only 90/10…today it is 96/04 in that global conglomerate. So the expectation of huge returns was flawed. Lesser fool theory…find the lesser fool than you to unload the business on and go work for an operator.

By: seo in China

seo in China — Mon, 09 Jul 2007 18:20:26 +0000

Good points, but I believe with a minimum of innovation there is still a lot of business opportunities for WVAS companies in mainland China

By: Ilan Efraim

Ilan Efraim — Sat, 30 Jun 2007 00:04:52 +0000

I wrothe a few days ago about
news niches,today Kong and
MSN launched a new service.

By: mark

mark — Thu, 28 Jun 2007 17:12:39 +0000

In the long run we are all dead, so stop worrying about the longterm dismal prospects of these wireless Chinese companies and instead enjoy how their stocks are riding now!! They might be balloons, but they seem like happy balloons! :)

By: Ilan Efraim

Ilan Efraim — Sun, 24 Jun 2007 18:15:59 +0000

you wrote the obvious,certainly those companies will find your niches and will make a lot of money.

By: tony yau

tony yau — Sat, 23 Jun 2007 08:09:21 +0000

yup, you are pretty much right but I still think investing in mvas is worth it in some situations. china mobile doesn't want to play around in the smaller niches so those are good. stuff like small games or community apps and things like that you know.

jerry is talking as an investor and that is fine because even bad businesses can sometimes make investors money back right? but maybe more importantly is that fundamentally these businesses are stepping stones and worthless. that is perry's point and it's well written to that point and I have to agree with it.

tony yau (shanghai)

By: Masaki

Masaki — Sat, 23 Jun 2007 03:30:33 +0000

Perry,

Nice article.

Many colleague from Japan, Korea and US has already come and failed in this market. It's really nasty business.

Therefore, many people want to try to overcome like highest mountain.

By: Geoff

Geoff — Sat, 23 Jun 2007 00:43:43 +0000

Well said Perry. I enjoy reading your tips!

By: jerry parker

jerry parker — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 14:27:54 +0000

perry,
been reading your stuff for while and i must admit that you are a typical writer/blogger who's very backward looking and only finds/writes facts to support your pre-determined conclusion. the bottom line is that while factually everything you say might be correct, who cares? everyone already knows that, isn't that why these stock trade at minimal or zero enterprise value. heck, even a good public shell goes for more than these company's values.
objectively, you should also point out that many of these wireless guys have aspirations of becoming leaders in next generation media, ranging from tv/music/production. if these were private, they'd raise more money from VCs at double current valuations just by talking about their new business. in fact, these areas are already generating revenues growth for them.

you know, in 2002 i was on a panel in SF in front of 2000+ people looking to invest in china chasing down private deals – SINA SOHU NTES were all trading near cash – and everyone had similar feelings about them as the wireless today. of course, these stock eventually went up as much as 70x+, but you or your readers don't really care about that do you? you're chasing after the next big thing.
btw, most people thought JRJC was a joke last year at $4 end of 2006…it's one of best performing stocks on nasdaq this year. Do you recall ASIA 2 yrs ago at $4.5…it's doubled also hitting 52 week hi. do you want any other examples of intellectual analysis by poor writers who have made no money and is always looking in the rear view mirror and criticizing them?

enough said – good luck to you all.

By: China No-Name

China No-Name — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 10:14:19 +0000

I must totally agree with what you say Perry. I can't tell you my name because I am currently working in a quite large mobile company in Beijing. I hope you understand :-)
I came here because the job is interesting and the pay is great but I do tend to believe our investors and CEO are delusional about our prospects. Revenue per user is so low and you are correct we must try to send many messages to make considerable revenue.
From the outside it seems we are doing quite well but I know the inside story and we're lacking funds. Even if we were the only mobile company in China, we would still not make decent money because China Mobile would still be competing with us, and how can we deal with them. What a goliath!
Anyway thank you for writing this because I believe ur saying what many people are scared to say or do. Good luck!!

By: Benjamin

Benjamin — Fri, 22 Jun 2007 09:05:58 +0000

Hahaha great article Perry!

I agree with most, though I think there are some opportunities in niche services.
I'd love to have you come on a panel with VCs!

Cheers,
Benjamin Joffe

Co-Founder
Mobile Monday Beijing
http://www.mobilemonday.cn