Nik Nanos is the chief data scientist at Nanos Research, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and is the official pollster for The Globe and Mail and CTV News.

In 1961, U.S. President John F. Kennedy famously said, about the U.S.-Canada relationship, that: “Geography has made us neighbours. History has made us friends. Economics has made us partners. And necessity has made us allies.”

Fast-forward 65 years, and Canada and the United States are still neighbours, partners and allies. It just doesn’t feel like they are good friends right now. In some ways, the relationship feels less like a friendship than a very long marriage under strain. One partner is angry, the other partner distracted. Both are still deeply tied together by shared interests and a future that cannot easily be separated.

The reality is that the confidence Canadians have in the United States as a source of economic security and geopolitical stability has been shaken.

A new survey for the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy New North America Initiative suggests a paradox: The relationship looks very different depending on which side of the border you stand.

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If this were a hockey game, Canadians have dropped their gloves at centre ice ready to take a swing, while Americans are wondering what’s up with the angry Canuck.

According to the survey of more than 1,000 Canadians conducted by Nanos and 1,000 Americans conducted by Ipsos for the School of Public Policy, four in five Canadians (81 per cent) describe the Canada-U.S. relationship as negative. That is not a partisan minority or regional phenomenon. It is about as close as you can get to a national consensus. Canadian views of the United States have fallen noticeably to become comparable with Canadian views of China. As a reminder, at a low point in Canada-China relations, Canada arrested a Huawei executive, and in response China detained two Canadians. No hostages have been taken in the Canada-U.S. relationship.

What’s clear is U.S. President Donald Trump’s talk of tariffs and countertariffs have raised the temperature among Canadians to a point where it is no longer an economic issue. It is emotional and symbolic.

The paradox is that while 81 per cent of Canadians see the relationship negatively, only 31 per cent of Americans do. (Sixteen per cent of Americans are not even sure how to characterize the relationship, compared with 1 per cent of Canadians.) More than seven in 10 Americans have never visited Canada (75 per cent) and seven in 10 (70 per cent) never follow Canadian news. Canada occupies far less space in the American mind than the United States does in the Canadian one. For Americans, Canadians are the nice, quiet neighbour to the north they don’t know much about or visit.

The reality is that for Canadians, the majority of whom live within a one-hour drive of the border, the U.S. is the house next door. For Americans, Canada is the house they hardly ever notice.

Even with the trade disputes and political tension, 52 per cent of Americans have a favourable opinion of Canada while only 11 per cent hold an unfavourable view. Only 8 per cent of Americans see Canada as a major challenge to their country’s economic prosperity. This is the lowest score of any country tested in the survey of Americans.

The public mood in both countries remains far more collaborative than the political rhetoric would suggest. More than seven in 10 Canadians (73 per cent) and nearly six in 10 Americans (58 per cent) support closer economic co-operation. Comfortable majorities in both countries support economic co-operation around energy and critical minerals (65 per cent of Canadians and 77 per cent Americans) while seven in 10 Americans (71 per cent) and Canadians (72 per cent) support defence co-operation.

Views on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) reveals that real common ground exists. Almost nine of 10 Canadians (88 per cent), support a trilateral trade deal, while a majority of Americans (56 per cent) support it as well. Ninety-three per cent of Canadians believe failure to renew USMCA would hurt the national economy, while 65 per cent of Americans similarly agree that not renewing would have negative economic consequences for the U.S.

The difference is that Canadians see USMCA as essential, while Americans see it as beneficial.

Canadians should not confuse the actions of the current resident of the White House with how average Americans feel. The current political situation is surely turbulent, but Americans have not turned against Canadians. Americans, in fact, are more optimistic about the future of the relationship than Canadians. Thirty-eight per cent of Americans believe the relationship will be positive 10 years from now while only 10 per cent expect it to be negative. Canadians are a little more cautious. Thirty-one per cent expect a positive future and 21 per cent foresee a negative one.

The numbers today speak more to an economic and psychological stress test than permanent damage. The current tension should be seen as an opportunity to renew and remake the partnership because the two economies, driven by geography, are inextricably interlinked. Now is the time to think about a new North America built on new national, regional, and provincial/state partnerships.

One should not be upset with an American president looking to get the best deal for the U.S., nor should Americans be upset with a Canadian prime minister fighting for Canada’s best interests.

The risk is not divorce but drift, where political theatre, tariff fights and wounded Canadian pride make the relationship worse. Like all marriages, things can get worse before they get better, particularly if political leaders confuse short-term leverage with long term national interest.

Like a long marriage with ups and downs, neither Canada nor the U.S. should expect the relationship to be easy, but they should hope for it to endure.