Fourteen years after public protests forced construction to stop, Myanmar is preparing to restart the $3.6 billion (£2.8 billion) Myitsone hydropower project in Kachin State. The China-backed dam would create a reservoir roughly the size of Singapore and generate up to 6 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. The administration led by military chief and president Min Aung Hlaing wants the project completed within eight years. Reuters reported on 1 July that the plan had been discussed privately by officials, including Kachin State chief minister Khet Htein Nan. The dam is planned at the meeting point of the Mali and Nmai rivers, which form the headwaters of the Irrawaddy. Construction was suspended in 2011 by then-president Thein Sein after large public protests over environmental damage and the displacement of communities. “It will begin shortly,” Htet Paing Htoo, a member of the Kachin State parliament, told Reuters. “An official announcement will be released. The president himself has already stated that it will be restarted.” The proposed restart follows Min Aung Hlaing's visit to China, which has supported the project for years.
The price of restarting Myitsone
The original project was agreed in 2009 with an estimated cost of $3.6 billion (£2.8 billion). More than a decade later, rebuilding the project could cost much more. The International Renewable Energy Agency puts the average cost of hydropower construction in Asian countries outside China and India at about $1,914 (£1,510) per kilowatt. At that rate, a 6-GW project could cost as much as $11.5 billion (£9.1 billion), more than three times the original estimate. If completed, Myitsone would be one of Southeast Asia's biggest hydropower plants, although it would remain far smaller than China's 22.5-GW Three Gorges Dam.
Myanmar needs more electricity
The proposed restart comes as Myanmar struggles with an unreliable power supply. The country's electricity infrastructure has suffered during years of conflict following the 2021 military coup. The government sees Myitsone as one way to increase generation capacity. Myanmar's national electricity demand is around 10 GW. At full capacity, the proposed dam could therefore produce more than half of the country's current demand. Government spokeswoman Khaing Khaing Soe said the project was discussed during Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Beijing. “We are analysing these matters in detail, evaluating the extent of the benefits versus the negative impacts, to strike a balance,” she said, referring to concerns over land loss and relocation. Another major question is where the electricity will go. Under the original agreement, 90 per cent of the dam's electricity was to be exported to China's southern power grid. That arrangement was unpopular in Myanmar, where many people face regular power shortages. It is not clear whether the terms have been changed or whether Myanmar will receive a larger share of the electricity if the project resumes.
Earthquake risks raise fresh concerns
The proposed dam would stand about 152 metres (500 feet) high, around 37 km (23 miles) upstream from Myitkyina, the Kachin State capital. Its location has raised concerns about earthquake safety. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck Myanmar in March and killed thousands of people. The disaster has added to concerns about major infrastructure in a country crossed by active geological faults. Critics say a large reservoir in an earthquake-prone area could pose a serious danger to communities downstream if the structure were badly damaged. At a private consultation on 23 June, Khet Htein Nan reportedly said China had promised to use advanced engineering methods to deal with geological risks. “They will use technology to ensure it can withstand such risks,” the minister reportedly said. “There is nothing to worry about.” At another private briefing on 22 June, the chief minister reportedly described the dam as a “historic achievement”. A source at the meeting said he also told officials that China fully supported the project's revival.
Authorities seek local support
The military administration has begun trying to build support for the dam in areas under its control. Following a visit to Myitkyina by former deputy military chief Soe Win in December, government-backed committees organised at least 26 meetings across Kachin State. The meetings were intended to explain the project and address local concerns. Naw Khon, a member of one of the committees, said the aim was to give residents information and allow them to form their own views. “What we want is to provide the public with accurate information and allow them to make their own decisions,” Naw Khon said. But opposition remains strong among ethnic communities and environmental groups. Critics argue that the project would damage the Irrawaddy river system and put communities at risk.
Why the dam was stopped in 2011
The original suspension followed widespread protests over the project's expected environmental and social effects. The reservoir would cover a large area around the confluence of the Mali and Nmai rivers. Opponents fear the flooding would destroy habitats, alter the river system and force people from their homes. Many communities in the region depend on the river and surrounding land for their livelihoods. The project has also become part of a broader debate about China's role in Myanmar and the country's control over its natural resources. On 5 May, 49 civil society organisations issued a joint statement calling for the project to be cancelled permanently. They argued that the dam would bring little benefit to ordinary people while causing serious damage to homes, property and livelihoods. The coalition said the project “offers no benefits to the public” and would cause “severe destruction and loss” for affected communities.