in brief
- A warming Arctic is offering new opportunities and challenges for the world's great powers.
- The US is attempting to catch up as Russia and China join forces to exploit new sea routes.
As the world warms, melting Arctic sea ice isn't prompting panic but pragmatism as countries vie to take advantage of this emerging new reality.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Iceland on Tuesday to discuss "economic and security collaboration" with officials in the capital, Reykjavik, as the United States seeks to shore up its influence in the High North.
The visit comes after the US signed a security pact with Denmark and Greenland last month at the United Nations General Assembly following months of repeated threats from President Donald Trump to buy or even annex the Danish territory.
Under the terms of the agreement, the US plans to build two new military bases on Greenland, further drawing it into Washington's orbit.
The US push for greater influence in the Arctic comes as the region undergoes a profound shift from frozen, remote wilderness to a frontier of intense strategic competition.
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Climate change is rapidly transforming the environment, with sea ice coverage shrinking dramatically over past decades, while previously stable international power balances have come undone.
Russia, which holds over half of the Arctic coastline, views the High North as a vital strategic focus and has been systematically rebuilding and reopening its Soviet-era military assets along its northern border to prepare for the coming shift.
China declared itself a "near-Arctic state" in 2018 and has deepened its partnership with Russia to expand its presence in the region. It has been developing its Arctic shipping capabilities and has spoken previously of building a "Polar Silk Road".
Elizabeth Buchanan, senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told SBS News that thick sea ice and a "harsh operational environment" had been a "handbrake on development" in the region — barriers which are now receding, with potentially major implications for Australia.
"Moving global trade north of course makes commercial sense in terms of shorter distances and so lower costs and quicker service," she said. "But it also removes congestion from South China Sea, for example."
"Whether this then makes the Southeast Asian region less strategically important is indeed something to consider — attention of sea powers of the day will shift and we are left exposed and isolated."
The Arctic thaw
The Arctic is being transformed by rising fossil fuel emissions faster than almost any other region on Earth. Melting sea ice reveals darker ocean water which absorbs more solar heat, creating a feedback loop that has caused the region to warm four times faster than the global average.
Since 1979, late summer sea ice has shrunk by more than 50 per cent of its total surface area and around 75 per cent of its total volume. Some models suggest the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur during a heatwave as early as 2027 through to the early 2030s, while ice-free months could become the norm by 2050.
In response, countries have been preparing for a warming Arctic and its impact on resources, shipping, and political competition.
A landmark United States Geological Survey assessment estimated that the Arctic could hold roughly 13 per cent of the world's remaining undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas.
The region is also thought to contain some of the world's largest undeveloped deposits of rare earth elements — essential for technology, defence and energy — with retreating ice potentially making these critical resources more accessible.
As sea ice melts, Russia's Northern Sea Route (NSR) through the Arctic has become increasingly navigable, as has the Northwest Passage across the top of Canada. Once treacherous, ice-laden waters are opening up for seasonal routes from July through to October.
Shipping along the NSR is estimated to reduce transit time by 30 to 40 per cent between Europe and Asia and bypass traditional choke points like the Straits of Malacca or the Suez Canal.
China, increasingly seeking to diversify its trade routes and partners, announced an expansion of its Russian-bound NSR transit services to include western European ports earlier this year.
South Korea and Japan are also expanding their shipping capacity through the Arctic to compete with China, while India too is trialling commercial vessels.
"So much has changed", Buchanan said. "China will announce this year its first indigenous-built, nuclear-powered icebreaker, and soon after, no doubt, commercial container fleets."
However, Chinese maritime strategy expert at the Australian National University, Edward Chan, cautions against interpreting exploratory ventures as a "near-term strategic shift towards commercialising Arctic shipping at scale".
"Severe seasonal constraints, high operational uncertainties, and significant technological challenges continue to limit the viability of year-round commercial operations," he told SBS News.
Countering Russian dominance
Trump has long said that the United States "needs" Greenland for national security reasons. The recently signed tripartite pact is seen as securing its interest in the Arctic in perpetuity.
The agreement overhauls an existing arrangement signed in 1951 and puts the US in permanent control of Greenland's security. Non-NATO military presence is restricted, while investment from adversarial nations is also barred.
Upon signing the deal, Trump said he would immediately begin developing an increased military presence in the "highly strategic parcel of land".
The administration is in some ways making up for lost time, Buchanan said, after failing to pay attention to the expanding presence of Russia and others in the region under former President Joe Biden.
Keen to tip the balance back, NATO has been scaling up its joint cold-weather operational exercises and its sensor and surveillance networks across the region. With the recent addition of Finland and Sweden, seven of the eight nations that border the Arctic are now NATO members.
Coupled with Western sanctions, Russia is increasingly being squeezed in the area. However, with a dominant fleet of roughly 40 icebreaking vessels, including nuclear-powered ships capable of operating year-round, it will take time for the alliance to catch up.
But present efforts are unlikely to phase Russia, Buchanan said, as Moscow has "always felt isolated and threatened" in the region.
"NATO has always been an issue, of course, for Moscow, but formal membership is a label I think," she said. "Basing and force structural changes will of course tighten the screws for Moscow, but they’ll weather it."
While the partnership between Russia and China has expanded in the Arctic in recent years, Chan said Western sanctions have "contributed to a strategic convergence between Moscow and Beijing", rather than true partnership.
"Historically, Russia and China have not always been aligned on Arctic affairs," he said. "The Russian military remains wary of China’s expanding footprint in the region, complicating deeper cooperation."
Australia left isolated
For decades, the High North has been managed by the Arctic Council, made up of the eight states with territorial claims in the region. It explicitly excludes hard military security from its mandate, focusing instead on environmental protection, sustainable development, and ocean science.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine saw the Arctic Council cut cooperation with Russia, bringing effective collaboration and rules-based governance to an end.
In 2013, China secured observer status on the council and used it to embed itself in regional economic structure and expand its presence — a strategy it is currently repeating in Antarctica, where Australia has a significant scientific presence.
If global shipping and attention turns north, Buchanan said the shift would result in Australia becoming a more "expensive and isolated region".
"Shifting trade north makes us an expensive and isolated region to service. Less vital interests in the region mean we have to front up our own defence," she said.
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