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India must build capacity behind critical autonomy

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Yet strategic autonomy and self-reliance cannot mean economic isolation. India will need to cultivate more dependable trade and business partners while building domestic capabilities in manufacturing, semiconductors and defence. The objective should be to reduce vulnerability, not eliminate interdependence. A key foundation of strategic autonomy is macroeconomic stability. India has done well to remain on a fiscally prudent path despite repeated global shocks. This gives the country greater policy space to respond to disruptions and, importantly, strengthens its hand while negotiating trade and investment agreements with major partners, whether the UK or the European Union.

At the same time, India must focus on developing critical capabilities at home. This requires a much bigger push towards research and development and a stronger pipeline of high-quality STEM graduates. If India risks missing the current AI investment wave, one reason is that it has yet to build the technological capabilities and large-scale AI models needed to compete at the frontier. Strategic autonomy, therefore, cannot be reduced to building a domestic semiconductor or defence manufacturing ecosystem, or simply fortifying strategic oil reserves. It must ultimately be about building an economy capable of staying ahead of the technology curve.

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