The most frightening question in a nuclear age is not who has the most nuclear weapons. It is who could be the first to use one. The first and the only time nuclear bombs were used was during World War 2. Since then, many countries have gained nuclear weapon technology, which itself has become deadlier. Chinese-born Canadian educator and geopolitical commentator Professor Jiang Xueqin, known for his theory-backed predictions, answered — who could be the next to use nuclear weapons?

Professor Jiang appeared on YouTuber Raj Shamani's podcast. Videos of the interaction were uploaded on August 11. When asked to assess the possibility of nuclear weapons being used in a future conflict, Jiang made a prediction that puts India's western neighbour at the centre of the nightmare scenario. Pakistan, Professor Jiang said, would be the country most likely to use nuclear weapons first.

Professor Jiang, who has gained popularity for his geopolitical predictions like Trump's return to power in 2024 and the possible war between the US and Iran, was not predicting an imminent nuclear war. In fact, he made the opposite point. "I personally do not believe that nuclear weapons will be used in our lifetimes ever because there's a universal taboo against nuclear weapons," he said.

But then came the caveat by the 50-year-old educator.

"But if I had to guess which nation would most likely use the nukes first, it would be either India or Pakistan. Possibly Pakistan," he said.

The reason, according to Professor Jiang, is less about Pakistan's willingness to fight a nuclear war and more about the country's vulnerabilities.

"Pakistan is a very, very weak, disorganised and corrupt nation with nuclear weapons. Its control systems may not be in place to restrain itself in an emergency," he said in a two-hour-long podcast.

In an interview with US-based journalist Mehdi Hasan in March, Professor Jiang conceded that he isn't actually a professor and that people started calling him that.

WHY INDIA WILL NOT USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Jiang described Pakistan as "weak, poor, corrupt and divided", arguing that if nuclear weapons were ever used, the most likely scenario would be a war between India and Pakistan.

This prediction is a disturbing assessment, but it focusses on a strategic reality that has defined South Asian nuclear politics for decades.

India and Pakistan do not have symmetrical nuclear doctrines. India has maintained a declared No First Use posture, although the policy has been debated and qualified over the years. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan has deliberately retained strategic ambiguity and has not adopted a No First Use policy.

Its nuclear arsenal is fundamentally tied to deterring India's larger conventional military capability.

Professor Jiang's argument is built around that asymmetry.

"India doesn't have to use nuclear weapons against Islamabad, whereas Pakistan has to in order to survive against India," he said.

That calculation has repeatedly appeared in Pakistan's political and military rhetoric since the early 2000s.

According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), India has 190 nuclear warheads, of which 12 warheads have been deployed for the first time in 2025. Pakistan has approximately 170 nuclear warheads, but it has not deployed any nuclear warheads.

PAKISTANI LEADERSHIP'S REPEATED NUCLEAR THREATS

In 2002, after the India-Pakistan military conflict which ended in Islamabad's surrender in Kargil, then-President of Pakistan Pervez Musharraf warned that his country could resort to nuclear weapons if its survival was threatened.

In 2019, after the Pulwama terror attack and India's Balakot air strikes, then-Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan warned that escalation between the two nuclear-armed countries could lead to nuclear war. The message was framed as a warning about the consequences of escalation, but it also underlined the role nuclear weapons played in Pakistan's security calculations.

The language became prominent again in May 2025 during the Operation Sindoor – India-Pakistan military confrontation – following the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 Indians.

Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said nuclear weapons could be used if there was a "direct danger to our existence", although he subsequently described the nuclear option as a "very distant possibility" and said it was not on the cards at that moment.

Foreign Minister of Pakistan Ishaq Dar also said Islamabad had no intention of deploying nuclear warheads and that its conventional capabilities were sufficient.

Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif later stressed that their nuclear programme was intended for peaceful purposes and national defence, rather than aggression. President Asif Ali Zardari, meanwhile, described Pakistan's nuclear capability as a "credible minimum deterrent" designed to maintain strategic balance and protect the country from external aggression.

But the most striking recent rhetoric came from Pakistan's military leadership.

ASIM MUNIR'S REMARKS BACK PROFESSOR JIANG'S PREDICTION

In August 2025, Pakistan's Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was reported to have said at a dinner in Tampa, Florida, "We are a nuclear nation. If we think we are going down, we'll take half the world down with us."

He was also reported to have threatened to destroy any Indian dam affecting Pakistan's water supply with missiles. India subsequently described the remarks as "nuclear sabre-rattling". Pakistan disputed the most alarming version of the remarks and maintained that it was a responsible nuclear state.

This pattern gives context to Professor Jiang's prediction. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine has long rested on a dangerous proposition that the nuke weapons compensate for conventional weakness. If India possesses the larger conventional military and economic advantage, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is the instrument that is supposed to prevent India from exploiting it.

Jiang does not argue that Pakistan is preparing to launch a nuclear attack. Rather, his concern is what happens if a conventional conflict reaches a point where Pakistan's leadership believes the state's survival is at stake.

The nuclear weapon then stops being merely a deterrent. It becomes an escape route.

"Again I personally think there is a 0% chance of nuclear weapons being used ever in our lifetimes," Jiang said.

But if that near-zero probability ever becomes reality, he believes the road to the first nuclear strike could run through the India-Pakistan border.

For two decades, Pakistan's message has essentially been that nuclear weapons exist to ensure its survival.

– Ends