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BMI raises 2026 coking coal price forecast to above $200/mt despite weak demand outlook

News Snapshot:

Fitch Solutions’ BMI Country Risk and Industry Research unit has announced that it has increased its 2026 price forecast for Australian premium low-volatile hard coking coal to $210/mt, up from $190/mt previously. The revision reflects persistent supply-side cost pressures even as the demand outlook weakens. In the near term, prices are supported by restocking activity in China ahead of the May Day holiday. However, the market is expected to soften in May-June due to seasonal factors and the easing of cyclone-related disruptions in Australia, though prices are still projected to remain above $200/mt. Diesel costs drive supply constraints A major…

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