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Jio Platforms Ltd’s IPO has drawn an extraordinary response from institutional investors. That makes a favourable listing likely, but what happens after the listing-day excitement settles? The bigger question is what kind of stock Jio will be – could it be a high-growth telecom play capable of delivering outsized returns?

Jio is no longer simply a story of adding subscribers. It has built one of the world’s largest digital networks. The next phase is about extracting more value from that infrastructure, raising revenue per customer and expanding beyond connectivity into higher-value digital and enterprise services.

Investors are divided less on the quality of the business than on the scale of returns it can deliver from the IPO valuation.

The initial response has been emphatic. Jio’s Rs 8,110-crore anchor book attracted demand of more than 30 times the shares on offer, while aggregate institutional demand was estimated at nearly Rs 2.5 lakh crore. The response included global long-only funds, sovereign wealth funds, domestic mutual funds and insurers.

The grey market premium also points to a potential listing gain of more than 20 percent. Even if one accounts for the fact that grey market prices are not always a reliable predictor of listing performance, strong institutional interest still increases the chances of a strong debut.

Ambareesh Baliga, independent market analyst, says, “The demand for the IPO has been huge, which means the set-up is strong for a strong listing. The institutional interest has been strong, looking at the anchor book at 30 times. Funds do tend to exaggerate demand, but it indicates strong interest and follow-up buying."

Helios Capital founder Samir Arora is more categorical about the investment case. Calling the IPO a “no-brainer”, he expects investors to make money on the issue and sees the stock delivering returns above the broader market after listing, though not necessarily extraordinary gains. “This is a stock we place under the 'high confidence in reasonable return' bucket,” he said.

Manish Bhandari of Vallum Capital, however, cautions against approaching Jio with multibagger expectations. “It's the kind of stock that will deliver strong listing gains and later find support through steady institutional demand when index inclusion comes through,” he said.

Scale is Jio’s biggest advantage

The numbers explain why investors are willing to pay a premium for Jio’s business.

At 524.4 million subscribers at the end of FY26, Jio had a larger customer base than Bharti Airtel’s India business, which had 482.4 million subscribers. Jio added 36.2 million subscribers during the year.

Its average revenue per user (ARPU) rose to Rs 214 in FY26, from Rs 206.2 in FY25 and Rs 181.7 in FY24. The company also carried 241.4 billion GB of data traffic during the year, against Airtel India’s 101.3 billion GB. Monthly data consumption per user stood at 42.3 GB, compared with 31.4 GB for Airtel.

Jio’s monthly churn rate was lower at 1.67 percent, against Airtel’s 2.43 percent. It also had a 50 percent share of the wireless broadband market, compared with Airtel’s 35 percent.

The scale is reflected in its financials. Jio reported revenue of Rs 1.47 lakh crore in FY26, with EBITDA of Rs 76,255 crore, up from Rs 64,170 crore in the previous year. Its EBITDA margin stood at 51.9 percent, while net profit was Rs 30,049 crore.

But subscriber additions alone will not drive the next leg of growth. With the market increasingly concentrated among the two leading operators, the opportunity lies in improving realisations from the existing customer base and selling more services to each user.

Bhandari sees room for Jio to raise revenue through tariff increases and a wider range of services, even as incremental customer additions may slow.

The company has also indicated that monetisation will not be limited to raising data prices. In an interview with Moneycontrol, Jio chairman Akash Ambani said: “We do not see network monetisation as being limited to charging more for every gigabyte of data. As customers use more services and derive greater value from them, there is scope to improve revenue as well.”

That is central to the longer-term investment case. Jio wants to capture more value from the network by expanding home broadband and fixed wireless access, deepening enterprise services and building out its digital offerings.

The capital intensity question

The other side of Jio’s scale is the capital required to build and maintain it.

Telecom remains a capital-intensive business. Networks need continuous investment to expand capacity, improve coverage, or upgrade technology. The key question for investors is whether Jio can now generate substantially higher returns from the infrastructure it has already put in place.

The next technology cycle will require further investment, although the transition to 6G is still some years away. In the interim, the focus will be on improving utilisation and monetisation of the existing network.

This is where Jio’s technology capabilities may offer an opportunity beyond India.

Prashant Jain, founder and chief investment officer of 3P Investment Managers, believes Jio has the potential to export its technology stack to telecom operators overseas through partnerships, without having to replicate its capital-intensive network investments in those markets.

“Jio has built one of the world’s largest digital networks, carrying the highest mobile data traffic outside China. More importantly, it has developed its own technology stack, supported by a strong patent portfolio, giving it capabilities beyond those of a traditional telecom operator. Jio could potentially export its proven technology stack to global telecom operators through partnerships, without committing significant capital to building networks overseas. If executed well, this could transform Jio from a capital-intensive Indian telecom business into a global, asset-light technology platform over time,” Jain said.

If that opportunity materialises, it will change the complexion of Jio’s return ratios, an important lever for the multiples the market is willing to give it.

The valuation question

At the upper end of the IPO price band, Jio is valued at around Rs 10.3 lakh crore. That puts it in the same broad valuation league as Bharti Airtel, whose market capitalisation is around Rs 11.2 lakh crore. Airtel’s valuation, however, includes its Africa business, Indus Towers and other holdings.

Nomura estimates Airtel India’s business at around Rs 9.5 lakh crore. On a one-year forward EV/EBITDA basis, Jio is valued at 10.9 times, compared with 9.2 times for Airtel India on FY28 estimates — a premium of about 15 percent.

Jio has the edge in revenue, subscriber base and data consumption. But Airtel India generates higher EBITDA of Rs 82,193 crore and has a margin of 58.6 percent, against Jio’s Rs 76,255 crore and 51.9 percent.

Airtel also added 9.5 million subscribers in the June 2026 quarter, compared with 8.9 million for Jio.

So what’s the real deal? The valuation premium rests on Jio’s scale, data consumption, and the potential for higher monetisation to boost earnings growth as the company moves out of its high-investment phase.

Analysts are pencilling in higher earnings growth for the company, as it stands to benefit from operating leverage after front-loading a significant part of its investments. “With the network and infrastructure already in place, incremental revenue could translate into stronger operating profitability, however, one important point to note is that spectrum cost is not fully accounted for and the tax is currently very low because of set-off against earlier losses and will rise eventually,” said Bhandari. “It’s reasonable to expect that Jio will see a faster earnings growth on the back of heavy investments made over the past years” said Baliga.

A defensive business in an uncertain market

There is another feature of the telecom business that investors find attractive: the resilience of demand.

Connectivity and data have become essential household expenses. Even when consumers cut back on discretionary spending, they are unlikely to cut mobile usage first.

Sandeep Tandon, the founder of Quant Mutual Fund, sees this as an advantage, particularly amid uncertainty over oil prices, bond yields, interest rates and the possibility of a broader slowdown in demand.

Bhandari puts it more simply: “People will skip a meal if it comes to that but not cut down on phone usage.”

That makes telecom relatively defensive, though it doesn't make the stock immune to valuation or execution risks.

A limited float could support the stock initially

The initial free float is another important factor in the listing dynamics. With only around 2.9 percent of the company’s equity available for trading after listing, the supply of shares in the market will be limited initially. Anchor investors will also be subject to applicable lock-in periods: 50 percent of their holdings can be sold after 30 days from allotment, and the remaining 50 percent after 90 days. This could keep the stock supported, provided the broader market holds up.

Six months later, additional shares could enter the market as private equity investors who invested in Jio in mid-2020 look to exit. But this supply could be absorbed as Jio attracts a wider investor base and potentially finds a place in benchmark indices about a year after listing. “Index inclusion could bring another source of institutional demand, helping absorb some of the additional supply,” Bhandari said.

Thus, while the combination of strong initial demand, limited free float and the prospect of index inclusion could support the stock in the early stages of its listed life, the more enduring investment case will depend on Jio’s ability to convert its enormous subscriber and data-consumption base into higher ARPU, sustained earnings growth and cash generation, while also transforming itself into an asset-light company delivering high return on equity. The levers for this transformation appear to be firmly in place – now, it’s all about execution.