Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in the United States for his first state visit in 11 years, setting the stage for a closely watched summit with US President Donald Trump. The high-profile welcome for Xi, including a rare planeside greeting by Trump at Joint Base Andrews, comes as Washington and Beijing seek to maintain stability in their trade relationship despite their broader strategic rivalry.

Soon after Xi's arrival, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the two countries had agreed to extend their trade truce by two months, until January 10, 2027.

Trade, Taiwan, Iran and technology are expected to feature in the talks. But the summit also comes as China's economic weight, its export-led growth model and its race with the US for AI leadership are reshaping the relationship.

International China Strategist Andrew KP Leung and Adam Dixon, Adam Smith Chair at Panmure House and Professor at Edinburgh Business School, explained some of the broader forces at play.

How much economic leverage does China have?

The US and China remain strategic rivals, but Leung pointed to the growing size and reach of the Chinese economy as an important factor in the relationship.

He said China has become the world's largest manufacturer and trader, with 128 countries having China as their largest trading partner, compared with 58 for the United States.

The US, meanwhile, accounts for 14% of China's total exports, according to Leung. That highlights the breadth of China's trading relationships beyond the American market.

Leung also pointed to China's use of rare earths and critical minerals as a countermeasure in the wider trade conflict. In his view, these developments are part of an intensifying rivalry between the world's two major powers.

"China is now standing strongly on its grounds," Leung said.

The point is important for the summit because the economic relationship is no longer simply about the tariffs or other measures Washington can impose. Beijing also has economic tools and a broad network of trading relationships that give it room to respond.

Why does China's export model matter to India and the Global South?

Dixon focused on another part of China's economic rise: the country's dependence on exports.

He said China needs to remain an export powerhouse to maintain growth, while arguing that wages have remained suppressed and domestic consumption has not been sufficiently fostered to rebalance the economy.

That has consequences beyond China. According to Dixon, countries in the Global South, including India, have to absorb Chinese exports, which can affect their ability to compete in global markets.

This means the impact of China's economic model cannot be viewed only through the US-China trade relationship.

"There's a certain element where pressure put on China to rebalance actually could benefit countries in the Global South," Dixon said.

For India and other emerging economies, the issue is therefore not simply whether the US and China reach a trade agreement. It is also how changes in China's export-led growth model could affect competition in international markets.

Is China trying to replace the US?

Leung said China's growing global influence should not automatically be interpreted as an attempt to replace the United States as the world's dominant power.

He argued that China is filling part of a vacuum in the global order, but also pointed to limits to Beijing's ability to replicate the US role. In particular, he said China does not have the military capacity to match the United States' global military presence.

At the same time, Leung said China's economic and trading reach has become large enough for the US to view Beijing as a "pacing or near-peer challenger" to American dominance.

The distinction matters: China's growing influence does not necessarily mean that it is seeking to take over the role played by the US, but it does mean Washington has to deal with a much more powerful economic and strategic rival.

What does the Russia oil sanctions issue add to the talks?

The summit is also taking place against the backdrop of US pressure over Russian oil purchases.

Donald Trump on Friday, September 18, signed into law a sweeping Russia sanctions package that gives him powers to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the top five purchasers of Russian oil or natural gas. China and India could be affected if such measures were imposed.

Dixon stressed, however, that having the legal authority to impose sanctions is different from actually using it.

He pointed to the Trump administration's continuing efforts to negotiate with Russia, including Trump's suggestion that Russian President Vladimir Putin attend the G20 Summit.

The legislation, therefore, has to be viewed alongside those diplomatic efforts. Its existence does not by itself mean that the maximum tariff will be imposed.

Why is AI emerging as an area of both competition and cooperation?

AI presents a different challenge because the US and China are competing for leadership while also confronting risks associated with rapid development.

Leung said both countries are "rushing up towards the commanding heights of AI", with the technology potentially changing how businesses operate, how people live and how militaries function.

Both sides therefore have strong incentives to maintain their technological lead. But Leung also said there is growing awareness in both countries of the risks posed by runaway AI development.

That could create limited room for cooperation.

Leung does not expect the US and China to fully cooperate because both want leadership in AI. But he said the two sides could coordinate and communicate over the risks associated with the technology.

"Both sides would agree to at least coordinate, talk to each other on the risk of AI," he said.

The competition itself is also taking different forms. Leung pointed to the US focus on data centers and cutting-edge AI, alongside a model based on fees and charges. China, meanwhile, is pursuing open-source AI, with the aim of encouraging more countries to adopt it and building momentum around a China-based system.

So even if Washington and Beijing find some common ground on AI risks, that would not remove the underlying competition for technological leadership.

What does this mean for the Trump-Xi summit?

The immediate backdrop to the meeting is an effort to maintain stability in US-China trade. The extension of the trade truce provides some breathing room, while Taiwan remains a core issue for Beijing. Iran, Russia-related sanctions and technology add further complications.

But the issues raised by Leung and Dixon show that the relationship has moved well beyond a dispute over tariffs.

China's expanding trading network gives Beijing greater economic weight; its export-led growth model affects competitors across the Global South; and its AI ambitions put it in direct competition with the US in a strategically important technology.

The summit is therefore taking place in a relationship where economic interdependence and strategic rivalry continue at the same time, with only limited areas where the two sides may be able to cooperate.