Crude benchmarks rebound from recent losses, DXY steady whilst AUD reacts to hawkish RBA commentary; TSLA ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

October 21, 2026
ChinaTechNews.com Staff

Pakistan Army Chief Munir brought the "final warning" from the United States to Iranian officials, which called on Iran to submit to the US demands for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.
The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field.
NQ outperforms, helped by upbeat SPCX and SMCI earnings; focus turns to META and TSLA.
DXY flat; AUD supported by hawkish comments by RBA's Hauser.
Fixed income benchmarks modestly lower, Gilts initially underperformed following a hot inflation report.
Looking ahead, highlights include US MBA Mortgage Applications. Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, ECB's Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Abbott, NextEra, CME, AT&T, SAP, Tesla, IBM, Meta & Texas Instruments.

SNAPSHOT

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.5%) have a slight positive tilt to start Wednesday’s session, with upside seen in France’s CAC 40 (+0.4%), as EssilorLuxottica (+14.2%) upside outweighs the downside in Carrefour (-14%). Outside of a busy earnings docket, which is set to be even busier tomorrow, there has been little in terms of a broader driver.
Sectors are mixed. Real Estate tops the sector pile, with Energy and Tech rounding out the sector gainers. At the bottom sits Autos, as Optimised Personal Care and Retail follow.
Other key updates include: Adidas +1.6%, Q3 metrics beat and lifts its FY26 operating profit guidance; Iberdrola +0.6%, raises its FY26 adj. net growth profit guidance to “at least” 10%; Qiagen +1.4%, as EQT reportedly offers USD 50/shr to acquire the company.
US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ following upbeat after-hour earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro. The former reported a sharp increase in AI revenue, which drove a swing to profit, while the latter raised its Q1 outlook on stronger AI platform demand. Focus now turns to Meta and Tesla earnings tonight.
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
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FX

G10s are mixed against the USD. The Antipodeans gain, with mild outperformance in the Aussie after hawkish commentary from RBA’s Hauser. The EUR holds towards the foot of the pile.
DXY is essentially flat and trades within a 101.73-101.83 range, holding towards the lower end of the prior day’s range. The data docket has been light this week, and will remain so; therefore, the USD may need surprises in tech-earnings/geopolitics to make a move in either direction. On that note, the USD came under mild pressure on Tuesday following reports that the Iranians were presented a “compromise proposal”; newsflow since then has been lacking, but the Iranian FM suggested that indirect negotiations were ongoing. Nonetheless, the situation remains tense with reports suggesting that tankers are still under fire.
AUD is the best performer this morning, following hawkish commentary from RBA’s Hauser. He mentioned that the inflation outlook is “materially worse”, blaming AI spending and rising energy costs. Hauser added that Q3 CPI will show inflation accelerating. Money markets have upped their bets of a hike at the November meeting, and now assign a c. 50% chance of such a move. Further adding to the hawkish tone was Goldman Sachs now expecting a 25bps rate hike in November, vs its previous call of no move. AUD/USD topped the 0.70 mark, to trade back towards levels not seen since late-September.
EUR is the slight underperformer this morning, with sentiment around Europe remaining downbeat. The OAT-Bund spread remains exceptionally wide at c. 156bps, and building on recent advances. Of course, the civil unrest in France and the ongoing French fiscal situation remain front of mind.
Across the channel, the GBP is a touch firmer this morning. Some mild strength was seen following the region’s inflation report, which saw the headline rise a touch more than expected, whilst Core M/M fell from the prior. Overall, a slightly firmer-than-expected inflation report, which plays in favour of those pushing for a hike at the BoE's November confab. Today's report, alongside the recent solid jobs report, will provide MPC members with enough evidence to suggest that the UK economy is holding up fairly well to deliver a hike in November. For reference, Danske, MUFG and Pantheon all expect a hike next month, and Pantheon sees another in February.

FIXED INCOME

A relatively contained morning for fixed income. USTs in a narrow sub-10 tick range, awaiting geopolitical updates with the docket otherwise fairly light and headlined by equity newsflow.
Bunds also contained, in a narrow 121.43-74 band; however, this currently comes with pressure of around 20 ticks, weighed by a gradual move higher in energy overnight and one that has continued marginally this morning for WTI and Brent. Particularly though, marked upside in TTF is doing the heavy lifting.
Gilts digested the morning’s inflation data as the hawkish driver it is, opening lower by just under 30 ticks and then slipping further to a 83.91 low, but still above 83.85 and 83.79 from Tuesday and Monday respectively. In brief, the series shows continued price pressures, with the headline well above the BoE’s forecast. However, and pertinently, the series still does not indicate overt or significant second round effects.
Overall, it keeps the BoE on track for a hike in 2026 and makes the November meeting ever more likely, barring a significant shock between now and then. But, the hike is likely to be a risk-management/prudence move, rather than a function of policymakers being concerned that second round effects are getting out of hand. A point that means calls for just one hike early in 2027, and then an extended hold before easing returns to the conversation, are likely fair at this stage.
Australia sold AUD 1.0bln of 4.25% October 2036 bonds; b/c 3.63x (prev. 4.51x), average yield of 5.2545% (prev. 5.3802%).

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent are trading with gains of 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively. Strength which appears to be a bit of a bounce back following the hefty losses seen in the prior session. WTI currently holds towards the upper end of a USD 97.91-99.57/bbl range, whilst Brent holds within a USD 109.27-110.75/bbl band.
The current geopolitical environment contains a number of key focus points. Starting with US-Iran, the Pakistani Army Chief met with Iranian officials in Tehran. Reports suggested that he provided a Qatar/Pakistan led “compromise proposal”, but this has yet to be confirmed. Instead, N12 reported that Army Chief Munir brought the US’ “final warning” to Iran, and if that does not bring peace, then the report suggests that the US could target Iranian nuclear facilities. The overarching theme is that the diplomatic path appears to be in effect, as confirmed by the Iranian Foreign Minister, but risks of escalation remain.
The other main points of interest are: 1) potential Russia-Ukraine peace; US Envoy Witkoff has met with Russian President Putin today, where he is expected to present a peace plan later; so far, Putin and Witkoff have struck a conciliatory tone. 2) Ongoing strikes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Dutch TTF (+4%) is stronger this morning, but holds a little shy of the EUR 90/MWh mark, remaining within a EUR 86.02-88.97/MWh range. Strength facilitated by ongoing LNG disruptions and as we enter the winter period, amidst low EU storage inventories. On the gas subject, the UK government has approved the Jackdaw gas field, and will begin production this month. The effect of this decision will likely be negligible on global markets, given it is expected to supply only around 6% of the UK’s domestic gas output.
Spot gold is essentially flat and trades towards the bottom end of a USD 4,106-4,131/oz range. Action today appears to be following the lacklustre action seen in the Dollar, and will ultimately take cues from any geopolitical updates. Elsewhere, base metals are broadly lower this morning. 3M LME Copper trades within a USD 14,284.63-14,463.63/t range.
US Weekly Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -4.9mln (exp. -1.1mln), Gasoline -2.0mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate -2.6mln (exp. -1.6mln), Cushing +0.9mln.
Russian Deputy PM Novak said they could see a full restoration of diesel volumes by end-2026 and they could have a commercial deal with China regarding Power of Baikal by end-2026, IFX reported.
South Korea's President Lee said the government is preparing to reduce mandatory domestic fuel supply obligations and allow refiners to increase exports.
Russian President Putin said that they could supply fertilisers in large quantities to the US market, TASS reported.
Iranian FM Araghchi said Tehran has opened dedicated routes for ships carrying Iraqi oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in order to reduce Iraq’s losses.
French President Macron said they secured 2 terawatt-hours per month of gas from Qatar during the winter period.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

The UK government has approved the Jackdaw North Sea gas field, with the Energy Minister saying the project will start to supply gas to British homes and businesses from as early as the end of this month. In later comments, the UK Energy Secretary said that the government will decide shortly on the Rosebank oilfield project.
Germany's Federal Finance Agency Director said that unconditional European support measures to calm sovereign bond markets could trigger a more serious debt crisis later, Econostream reported.
French Finance Minister said France have the instruments to pass a budget.

NOTABLE EUROPEAN DATA RECAP

UK CPI (Sep YY) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.1%); Services Y/Y 3.7% (exp. 3.6%, prev. 3.4%).
UK CPI (Sep MM) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.5%).
UK Core CPI (Sep YY) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%).
UK Core CPI (Sep MM) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%).
UK Retail Price Index (Sep MM) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.6%).
UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (PSNB) ex-Banks (Sep) 24.5B vs. Exp. 23.9B (Prev. 18.3B).
UK ONS House Price Index (Aug) 0.4% Y/Y (Prev. 1.4%).

CENTRAL BANKS

RBA's Hauser said monetary policy is working, but the inflation outlook has deteriorated and appears worse than forecast. Inflation has remained elevated for an extended period, while inflation expectations must remain anchored to the target. Companies continue to cite cost pressures as their primary concern. There has been some slowing in labour market and housing data. RBA is still finalising its forecasts, and it remains uncertain what decision the Board will make. Looks like quarterly trimmed mean will be higher than expected.
BoJ is expected to assess whether underlying inflation has reached its 2% target at its October 29th-30th policy meeting, while keeping interest rates unchanged at around 1.25%, Kyodo reported.
BoJ's Himino said upside inflation risks remain high, warning that delays in adjusting monetary policy could allow inflation risks to materialise and harm the economy. Financial conditions remain accommodative, with real interest rates low and bank lending expanding rapidly. Medium- and long-term inflation expectations continue to rise. Underlying inflation is nearing the BoJ's 2% target and is expected to converge towards levels consistent with the target. Strong AI demand is boosting domestic capex and exports.
ECB's Kazaks said that some more policy tightening might be necessary if inflation continues to reside above target and that the recent rise in yields has already tightened financing conditions, Econostream reported.
ECB's Lane said greater global euro use may help the ECB control prices.
Indonesian Central Bank left the BI rate unchanged at 5.75%, raised the Deposit Facility rate to 5.00% (prev. 4.75%).
Goldman Sachs now expects the RBA to hike rates by 25bps to 4.85% in November, having previously expected rates to remain unchanged.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

US President Trump posted that he is watching data centres closely.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Pakistan Army Chief Munir, in his meeting with Iranian officials, brought with him the "final warning" from the United States, which called on Iran to submit to the American demand for concessions on the nuclear issue before taking any other steps.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said indirect US talks continue via Pakistan and Qatar despite Washington's public opposition. Araghchi added that the US accepted Iran's seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but added conditions. Iran insisted Washington first honour commitments under the Islamabad MoU before further negotiations, stressing that diplomacy remains possible if the US fulfils its obligations.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran has yet to receive a response from Saudi Arabia or Yemen's Houthis regarding its mediation initiative, while warning against trusting the US in negotiations. All possibilities are on the table, including a new war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran. Sanctions and the blockade have imposed major burdens on Iran. Reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on reaching an understanding with the US.
Iran's IRGC Political Deputy said Iran will target internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if its infrastructure is attacked, Mehr reported.
Iran has reportedly prepared for an all-out, multi-layered and comprehensive war against its adversaries, Press TV reported, citing a source.
Israeli PM Netanyahu is pushing to resume major strikes on Iran, but a planned October 10th offensive was halted amid Trump's opposition ahead of the US midterms, FT reported.
UKMTO received report of an incident 11NM west of Bukha, Oman.
Houthi military spokesperson said they did not launch any drones toward Medina, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday.
Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed four drones launched towards Saudi Arabia, according to a coalition spokesperson.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

US Special Envoy Witkoff said talks in Oslo were productive and that there is forward progress on the issue of Ukraine, IFX reported. Witkoff added that a basic foundation exists for a ceasefire in Ukraine and hopes that Russian President Putin will consider resuming US-Ukraine-Russia talks. Furthermore, he emphasised that Russia and the United States have prospects for developing economic relations after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
Russia's President Putin told US Special Envoy Witkoff that Russia is interested in restoring economic ties with the US, IFX reported.
Russian President Putin invited US Envoy Witkoff for discussions on the prospect of a meeting between Putin and US President Trump in China, IFX reported.
Elon Musk reportedly ordered a slowdown of Ukraine's military-grade Starlink service, while Musk and Trump discussed the decision in a subsequent call, WSJ reported.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said it views Japan’s supply of drones to Ukraine as a hostile act; Russia will respond.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin fell to a low of USD 82.54k before gradually climbing to a peak of USD 83.6k throughout the European morning.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly firmer as after-hours strength in AI names, following Super Micro Computer's upbeat guidance and SpaceX's earnings call, offset the mixed lead from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq 100 lagged on AI-debt concerns.
ASX 200 was little changed amid a busy morning of company updates, including NEXTDC's FY27 guidance cut, while Goldman Sachs shifted to expecting a 25bps RBA hike in November after hawkish remarks from RBA's Hauser.
Nikkei 225 gained on the AI-led strength in US after-hours trade, shrugging off softer-than-expected exports and a wider-than-expected trade deficit.
KOSPI outperformed and triggered a sidecar as KOSPI 200 futures jumped 5%, rebounding after Tuesday's sharp slide.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were lower with the latter reversing earlier opening gains, while CAICT data showed a 22.9% Y/Y drop in China's September smartphone shipments and CATL was in focus after its Q3 miss.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said the government is coordinating closely with the BoJ, with no major divergence on the inflation outlook or monetary policy. Noted that tax cuts boost demand and push up prices. Government will ensure proactive and responsible fiscal policy strengthens Japan's supply capacity without accelerating inflation.
Japan and India to hold 2+2 meeting in mid-November, Kyodo reported citing officials, with the aim to strengthen cooperation in maritime security and economic subjects.
China's September smartphone shipments fell 22.9% Y/Y, according to CAICT.

NOTABLE APAC DATA RECAP