China’s proposed export controls on 12 key photovoltaic manufacturing technologies could raise implementation risk in solar cell manufacturing, according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra).
China, which controls over 75 per cent of the global solar supply chain, has proposed restricting exports of 12 key technologies used to make solar equipment, citing the need for close monitoring as these technologies are also used in aerospace, defence and other sensitive sectors.
In its latest report, Ind-Ra said the announcement to impose export licensing controls on certain high-end construction equipment, including tunnel boring machines (TBMs), could raise execution risk for engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) corporates.
While India has supply chain dependence on China, the latest move indicates rising risk from technology dependence, the ratings agency said, adding that the move could raise implementation risk in solar cell manufacturing.
ALMM-II timelines and backward integration at risk
The technology transfer ban could affect ALMM-2 policy timelines, impacting the demand-supply balance for DCR (domestic content requirement) cells and influencing market pricing and profitability.
The government’s ALMM-II framework mandates sourcing of made-in-India cells from an approved list of module manufacturers (ALMM).
“The proposal, if implemented, could slow down capacity addition for backward integration. Companies with already secured supplies are less likely to be impacted than those planning to enter capex cycle now. Backward integration in ingots and wafers might also face delays and/or cost escalations,” said Bhanu Patni, Director, India Ratings & Research.
Players investing in the value chain have benefitted from policy support in the past; thus, policy support is crucial for capex intensity and the ability to earn margins for comfortable debt servicing, he noted.
Industry calls for domestic technology development
Meanwhile, Volks Energie CEO Piyush Goyal suggested the government should fund a mission for indigenous equipment, PLI support to technology ownership, and look for partnership with Japan, Korea and Europe, and build a deep bench of cell-line engineers.
Sunkind India MD Hanish Gupta said the final impact will depend on regulations, licensing provisions and availability of alternative technology partners, but the country must take China’s proposal as a “wake-up call”.
The situation makes supply-chain diversification and domestic technology development essential for the industry, he said.
Published on October 26, 2026
