In April, the India Meteorological Department made two important forecasts for the upcoming monsoon. One, that El Niño conditions – the unusual warming of ocean surface water that can cause reduced rainfall – were likely to develop during the monsoon. Two, despite these conditions, the monsoon will be “normal”, with the south peninsula expecting normal to above normal amounts of rain, and north-west India expecting normal or below normal rainfall. However, by the end of June, the situation on the ground looked very different from these forecasts. The geographical distribution of rainfall was the opposite of what had been forecast:...